Friday, March 31, 2006

Sam Palmisano's (IBM CEO) Technology Forecast

IBM Research recently provided its Global Technology Outlook to Palmisano, who makes few public speeches and gives almost no interviews. The GTO is essentially a seven- to eight-hour presentation in which scientists from IBM's storied research division discuss what they think will emerge as major technology trends over the next three to five, or even 10, years. Ideally, IBM then comes up with ways to capitalize on the trends. This year's GTO encompassed five topics:

Silicon Manufacturing
Moore's Law will prevail for at least 10 years, IBM researchers predict. Chip designers will have to incorporate new structures and chemicals into their chips, but they won't have to swap the silicon base with more radical materials for a decade or more.

Sensors
Governments, established corporations and start-ups have all shown increasing interest in sensors that can more easily track the movement of cargo, cars or even people. But what do you do with all of the data collected by the sensors? IBM will likely start to look into ways of combining sensor networks with data mining (developed originally by Rakesh Agrawal at IBM). Conceivably, amassing the data from several sensor networks could enable researchers to better understand traffic patterns or the early warning signs of disease outbreaks.

Application Processors
Now that multicore processors exist that contain hundreds of millions of chips, it is becoming more economical to produce chips, or cores within chips, that perform specific functions. A significant market for math processors and other specialty chips existed years ago, but many functions got absorbed into general-interest microprocessors. The pendulum is now swinging the other way, because of the complexity of workloads and the large transistor budgets available to today's designers. Server accelerator chips like those from Azul Systems and Japan's Institute of Physical and Chemical Research are a type of application processor.

Everyone makes Software
In the past, a few people inside corporations wrote code. "Now everyone is a programmer," Viswanathan said. IBM and others will have to come up with tools to make writing programs easier, but also tools to ensure that these ad hoc applications can play well in existing corporate environments.

Services 2.0.
Everyone needs services, and IBM has tied its future to it. One of its big aims is to more acutely study the way organizations behave. Some at IBM acknowledge that it sounds like squishy science--but computer science wasn't recognized as a discipline when it first emerged, either. Stanford University's engineering school initially didn't teach it.

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

The Law of Diminishing Returns (CPU Architecture Innovation Steps!)

Single chip CPUs were first produced in 1971 with Intel’s 4004. In the 34 years since then various features have been added to enhance performance and functionality.
  • Single chip CPUs started at just 4 bits but rapidly went upwards through 8, 16 and 1979’s Motorola 68000, a 32 bit processor. The first 64 processors did not appear until 1992.

  • Cache was next to be added, first in very small quantities (a few bytes in the 68010) but this has been rising ever since then.

  • Soon after external devices such as Memory Management Units and Floating Point Units were also integrated.

  • The 68040 and 80486 delivered pipelining, this was the beginning of the integration of RISC technologies into CISC chips. Pipelining allows the CPU to operate on different stages of different operations simultaneously - e.g. it can be reading one while executing another.

  • Superscalar execution was next, this gave the processors the ability to execute multiple instructions simultaneously. This arrived in the 80586 (aka Pentium) and 68060.

  • OOO (Out of Order) execution appeared in the Pentium Pro. Along with it came things like speculative execution and pre-fetching.

  • x86 got SIMD / Vector capabilities in increments from MMX onwards. PowerPC got it in one go with the introduction of AltiVec.

  • Intel introduced Hyperthreading in a version of the Pentium 4.

  • Most recently AMD have lead the way with point to point busses, 64 bits, on-die memory controllers and more recently dual cores.

What's next? Downloadable Perfumes??

Samsung has submitted a patent application for a mobile phone which would include a "perfume container" which can then spray the perfume out, either when a button is pressed on the handset, or when the phone receives a phone call. Presumably if a handset came with several containers you could have a nice smell for friends and family and a not so pleasant odour for calls from your boss ?

The purpose of the patent is not actually new, but Samsung are claiming to have overcome several problems inherent in previous applications which gives them a lot more control over the quantity of perfume that is emitted each time. The pressure unit may also include a heater to heat the perfume stored in the perfume chamber, a piezoelectric element unit to pressurize perfume stored in the perfume chamber and/or an ultrasonic exciting unit to excite perfume stored in the perfume chamber.

The patent number is US 2006/0062408 A1

Sunday, March 19, 2006

Which is the most important of all the recognised classic selling skills?

If we think for a moment of the range of skills a salesperson requires...

  • The ability to create relationships
  • Being able to present clearly, verbally and in written form
  • Have the confidence to handle blocks, objections
  • Planning and analytical skills
  • To be able to be an effective negotiator
  • Effective questioning skills
  • Be able to build and gain commitment

This is not the total list, but it illustrates that the effective salesperson requires a range of competencies and skills. But is there one skill that can be prioritised above all of the others?

Of course possessing only one skill in isolation would not result in an effective salesperson. But, is there one skill, which, if it were not present, would result in a total failure of the sales process? My feeling is, YES, there is one and that is the ability to ask questions.

Why? If we consider a solutions based sales philosophy, which is widely accepted as being the most effective, what does it depend on? Being able to identify customer needs before a solution is presented. This is fundamental if solutions are to be focused to a customer's needs. The more focused and relevant the greater the likelihood of customer agreement.

Basic sales training has always covered the differences between open and closed questions, but questioning skills involve a lot more than this, for example..

  • How to create a dialogue rather conduct an interrogation
  • The importance of sequencing questions so that topics are introduced in a sequence that is logical for the customer
  • Being able to ask searching questions in a non-threatening manner so that latent needs can be uncovered and converted to agreed needs, thus opening up additional sales opportunities
  • The ability to adapt questioning styles to best match the behavioural style of the customer
  • Asking questions is a key skill, but so are the skills of being able to listen and being able to assimilate and interpret information - so we would see that these are linked skills

There are a number of strands and dimensions to developing effective questioning skills. If questioning has always been a core skill, why has it become more important in the 21st century sales environment? There are a number of factors, the two most significant being:

(1) Increased competition

It is increasingly difficult to achieve differentiation in pure product terms. The difference can be achieved by finding out more about the potential customer than your competitors.

(2) Increased complexity

The move to Account Management in many sales organisations means that sales people need to find out a lot more about their customers so that they are able to develop a strategic relationship. This requires more than simply establishing their needs for your services. It involves understanding the customer's strategy, their goals, organisation decision making process, their environment and culture. To gain this understanding requires being able to create a dialogue with potentially a number of people in the customer's business.


Friday, March 17, 2006

All things must pass around

An article by Sunil Mittal.... (The writer is Chairman & Managing Director, Bharti Enterprises)

As the pilot taxied at Heathrow on a flight to Barcelona, I looked out at the busy airport from the tiny window and thought, "Well, we will have spanking new airports in India in the next few years". In particular, the mess of Delhi and the greater embarrassment in Mumbai would be behind us.

Who are at the forefront of this much awaited change? GMR and GVK.

India's most important infrastructure model will rest on the shoulders of these two rookies. Who are they? GVK has sales of Rs 350 crore; GMR, while having a sale of over Rs 2,000 crore, has it all in brick and mortar business of construction. Will they be able to handle the multimillion dollar projects?

Will they manage to gauge customer (passenger) needs, the complications of air regulation and the pressures of running a mission-critical business?

How could newcomers upstage the big boys?

Whenever new opportunities are thrown open by the government, a new set of entrepreneurs emerge on the national scene, who then go on to become powerhouses in their own right. Bharti Airtel is a case in point. When the government opened up the telecom sector, four rookies took the Grandstand along with the big boys. Bharti, Siva, Max and BPL took the key Delhi and Mumbai mobile licences while competing with the who's who of Indian industry. The Tatas lost out, as did many other established business houses.

Modi & Usha got Kolkata, Thapars and RPG got Chennai. The rookies pushed hard. The rest is history.

Bharti Airtel is today India's largest telecom company. Yet, it did not go on to win the airport deal in Delhi. Changi pulled out at the eleventh hour. Yes, Bharti-Changi would have scored the highest in technical parameters, but this would be too simplistic a conclusion. Bharti would not have won against the rookies.

What makes these new kids succeed where established players fail - or in many cases, wake up to the potential when the train has left the station?

There are some exceptions. Reliance stood in front of a running train and, as we all know, managed to jump on to it. However, the rookies could not be hurled out of the moving train. They are the leaders.

India's corporate history has several examples of the new kids taking over the block. Reliance came from nowhere when the government opened up the petrochem sector to become a formidable player. Subhash Chandra sneaked into the media world with Zee even before the ground rules were laid out.

IT threw up Infosys, Wipro, HCL and Satyam. TCS is also a formidable player, but that does not take away from the glorious rise of the 'new' IT boys.

Then there's Naresh Goyal. Jet Airways is the most admired airlines of the world - yup, the world. Anil Agarwal picked up the important metal companies divested by the government through stiff competition from the established houses.

Are the big boys becoming fat and slow? Or is it the hunger and the passion of the new kids that force this change? Perhaps a combination of both these. Experts and management gurus have researched the fall of titans and the rise of new age entrepreneurs. Why do large players fail to secure opportunities? Why do they become risk-averse even though their own existence lies in the huge risk-taking abilities of their founders?

I will use my own loss of airport opportunity to proffer my own reasoning. Bharti went into the opportunity of developing the airport ahead of others. The company started work on the airports even before the government woke up to this possibility. Large established players are required to think ahead of time and shape the economic agenda of a nation. We tied up with the best operator in the world, Changi. All stakeholders, including the government, gave this potent combination a thumbs up to win the Delhi airport.

A lot of work went into the process of bidding, the business plan, the endless meetings of experts,consultants and managers. They call it the management process. I call it the 'useless dance'. While the big boys like us were busy going through the motions, the smart set of entrepreneurs - the rookies - determined to win, relied on simple assumptions, mapped out the moves of the big players, stayed focused
on winning and surged ahead.

For Bharti it was a big and important project, yet not a project which would make or break it. Therein lies the guru mantra and the difference between winning and losing.

The nation needs to celebrate the victory of GVK and GMR. It reinforces the fact that Indian economy and politics have matured to allow new players to partake the new opportunities being thrown up in India. The rise of the rookies will inspire thousands more. Today the economy is bringing forth a hundred new faces. In a few years, GVK and GMR will run dozens of airports and will be household names and in the round beyond, they will also sit and wonder how they lost to the new kids on the block.

Thursday, March 09, 2006

The Key to Continuous Survival for a Company in today’s world: INNOVATION !

Each year, Bill Gates escapes to a hideaway on Washington State’s Hood Canal to ponder Microsoft’s next leap forward. Any Microsoft employee can submit a written proposal for a new product or service for him to consider during the days he is there. He promises to read them all.

Gates’ ritual is part of his push to ensure that Microsoft remains at the forefront of innovation in the software industry. If Gates likes an idea, he’ll return to the company’s headquarters and launch a new initiative around it.

Few bosses devote that kind of energy to innovation. But for Microsoft, Gates’ attention to it has paid off. Though Microsoft is a giant with a market capitalization of nearly $300 billion, its executives say it retains the agility of a startup when it comes to introducing new products and improving old ones. It was named the world’s third most innovative company, behind Apple and 3M, in a poll conducted last year by Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
and Knowledge@Wharton, which subsequently teamed up teamed up to host the Ben Franklin Forum on Innovation at Wharton.

Attending were representatives of many of the companies that senior executives around the world identified as the 20 most innovative in the world. The goal of the meeting was to examine innovation from every angle — what it means, why some firms do it better than others, and how even established giants can jumpstart their ability to innovate.

The companies identified as the most innovative by the survey were: Apple, 3M, Microsoft, GE, Sony, Dell, IBM, Google, Procter & Gamble, Nokia, Virgin, Samsung, Wal-Mart, Toyota, eBay, Intel, Amazon, Ideo, Starbucks and BMW. Many of these organizations sent their representatives to the event to share ideas about innovation as well as to be recognized for their achievements. In addition, winners of the Wharton Infosys Business Transformation Awards also participated in the Forum.

Innovation, of course, has become a corporate buzzword. It’s as much a part of today’s jargon as “total quality management” was in an earlier era. You can hardly skim the chairman’s letter in an annual report without coming across hosannas to it. But swearing fealty to an idea is very different from practicing it. One is about hope; the other, action. Innovators act.

Many companies spend a great deal of time and effort on measuring innovation, says Jim Andrew, senior vice president and head of innovation at BCG: “While none of these measures individually may be perfect, a suite of measures allows you to get your arms around measuring the progress of innovation. It allows you to learn and change as it becomes necessary. Companies sometimes fail to measure and manage innovation, but that is a mistake that can be avoided.”

How, then, should companies measure innovation? According to Andrew, companies should measure three main things. “First, you should track the outputs of the innovation process. Next, you need a set of measures to track the inputs. This is where innovation can be most precisely measured. People track the amount of money they spend on
research, and they also track specific people. In our experience, human capital is in much shorter supply than financial capital. The scarce resource is always your best people. The third area is the effectiveness of your process. To sum up, you’ve got to measure inputs, outputs, and process performance.”

Companies that measure and manage innovation will find that this helps prevent their businesses from becoming commoditised. “It’s all about finding new ways to create customer value,” says Hal Sirkin, senior vice president at BCG. “If you are selling widgets and if you can make a widget that is inherently better for the customer, you can charge more for it. And by charging more, you end up creating more value.”

Sirkin Says companies with innovative cultures retain their people better: “They create more opportunities for people because of the growth and the environment that inherently comes with innovation. It’s not a boring job. It’s exciting because you keep thinking of new ways to meet customer needs. Everybody wants to help their customers do better. It’s just part of who we are as human beings. And so by doing that, you create more value for your people too.”

To understand innovation, you first have to distinguish it from invention. Too many people confuse them, says Linda Sanford, senior vice president at IBM. A company’s portfolio of patents reveals its record as an inventor. IBM, for example, remains formidable in this regard, with a record number of patents. But patents aren’t enough. The technology has to find its way into products.

Not all innovations are created equal. Wharton’s Paul Schoemaker points out that many people cite only of “hits” like the Blackberry or Starbucks coffee shops when talking about innovation. “But some companies don’t play that game,” he said. “They play a percentage game of incremental innovation, like Toyota. And some companies aren’t really innovators at all. They play a loss-avoidance game. Think about the airlines.”

Tom Kelley, general manager of IDEO, a design and innovation consultancy, parsed the problem differently. He argued that many firms strive to deliver hits and incremental innovations — or at least they should. “Customers demand the incremental stuff, so you’re compelled do it,” he says. “Meanwhile, you have to do the leaps yourself. Breakthroughs are important but not urgent.”

Just as critical as defining innovation is figuring out what distinguishes innovative ideas from humdrum ones. To Steven Berlin Johnson, author of Everything Bad is Good for You, three of the best innovations in recent years — the web, Google and the iPod — share three qualities. They have simple user interfaces. They reuse existing information. And they were created by small groups of people, not cumbersome committees. “With the web, the powerful insight was the ability to click on a blue word and go somewhere — the linking,” he said. “Networking theorists thought you had to have two-way communication, multiple link levels and more authoring built in. Those are all good ideas, but the beauty of the web is that you just click on a blue word.” Even the most computer-phobic person can point and click.

Google is nearly as easy to use. When it began, competing search engines often employed busy graphics and organized their results in opaque ways. Google presented only its memorable moniker, a mostly white screen and a text-input field. Likewise, the genius of the iPod is its scroll wheel, which allows a user to rapidly spin through thousands of songs. These three innovations make existing information easier to find and organize and allow a person to recombine text, photographs and music in ways uniquely useful to him. “The iPod is a tool for taking information — digital music files — and creating your own media experience,” says Johnson. But none of them is a philosopher’s stone, turning lead into gold. Rather, each recycles. That even applies to the web, which has revolutionized communications. It merely lets users share knowledge in new ways.

A visionary CEO goes a long way to ensuring that an organization will innovate and no one embodies this notion better than Steve Jobs. But according to Intel director PK Gupta, a CEO who looms as large in a company’s innovative ability, as Jobs does in Apple, can present problems. A cult of personality arises around the boss, with employees assuming that all great ideas flow from him. “What happens when he’s gone?” asks Gupta. Apple’s history in this regard isn’t encouraging. Jobs left in the mid-1980s after a power struggle with a CEO who he had recruited. Without its founder, the firm floundered and didn’t regain its innovative edge until he returned in 1997.

An antidote to dependence on a visionary boss is building a company-wide culture of innovation. That requires both tangible steps like creating the right teams, procedures and rewards but also intangible ones like giving employees room to be creative.

After becoming boss of Xerox in 2001, Anne Mulcahy wanted to pump up the company’s innovative abilities even as she pared away costs. She sought out the advice of one Xerox researcher with lots of patents. “He said that most innovation happens by accident and experiment not design,” she recalls. “It’s allowing people to push barriers.”
That doesn’t mean that companies should allow workers to wander around like wannabe Franklins, waiting for eureka moments. They must provide structures that ensure that work gets done but let innovation flourish. And they must create channels through which promising ideas become profit-making products.

Microsoft, for its part, employs a variety of means to make sure that these things happen. It has seven research labs worldwide, including ones in Redmond, San Francisco, Beijing and Bangalore, India. Each lab has carved out a specialty. “Bangalore is focused on emerging markets and low-cost computing,” says Ian Sands, a director at Microsoft. “Beijing brings the same sort of local strength in speech and character recognition.”

The company also employs three chief technology officers, each with an area of expertise and an incubator for cultivating pet technologies. The highest profile member of this trio is famed software entrepreneur Ray Ozzie, creator of the Lotus Notes program, who joined Microsoft when it acquired his Groove Networks. He’s already shown why folks in the software business revere him. In October, he penned a manifesto, widely circulated on the web, about Microsoft’s future as a provider of advertising and subscription based software services.

Sands, who manages Microsoft’s industry innovations group, leads a team that is part incubator and part internal venture capitalist. He seeks out new ways in which cutting-edge Microsoft technology can be deployed. “We’re thinking about how R&D can apply to the pain points in a variety of industries as well as in the mixing of industries,” he says. “We’re finding new white space between industries.” His group has teamed up with Umpqua Bank in Portland, to enable the bank’s customers to use their cell phones and personal digital assistants to execute transactions.

Sands emphasized that old-fashioned methods, delivered in newfangled ways, can spur innovation. Microsoft has a virtual suggestion box into which anyone affiliated with the company — an employee, contractor, vendor or customer — can submit an idea for a new product or service. “There’ve been some complaints that it’s a black hole,” he says. “But in response we say, ‘Here are the things that have come from it.’”

Many big, successful companies were, at one point their evolution, innovators — they wouldn’t have grown big if they weren’t. Ford, which like GM is struggling today, invented modern automotive manufacturing. “Winners become losers,” says Schoemaker. “Look at what happened to Sears and AT&T. The prediction would be that Microsoft won’t be on top of the world in 20 years. Maybe the attempt to be rational squeezes out the ability to be innovative.”

Sands conceded that all of these tendencies exist, even at Microsoft, but added that his company is fighting to build a culture that resists them. “It’s an ongoing struggle, but we know to be competitive that we have to be innovative.”

Big, established firms with staid cultures can change. Consider Procter & Gamble. “In the old days, things were pretty much top-down at P&G,” says. “Now there’s a new CEO and he’s turned the big battleship in three or four years.’”

IBM exemplifies the same sort of trajectory. In its early years it was the leading innovator in the computer industry. Then in middle age, the company slumped, as computing moved away from mainframes to PCs and the internet. But in the 1990s, former chief Lou Gerstner brought the firm back from also-ran to innovator. At both P&G and IBM, the culture had to be shocked into changing. At the IBM, the threat was real — the company was losing market share to more nimble competitors and bleeding money.

P&G, in contrast, seemed to be thriving when Lafley took over in 2000, says Jeff Weedman, P&G’s vice president for external business development. Even so, the new boss set ambitious goals. “At P&G, for many years, you could get by not making any mistakes,” Weedman explained. “But Lafley came in and said, ‘I want innovation across the spectrum — in how we market, manufacture and distribute.’

“He was quoted as saying that he wanted 50% of our revenues to come from new products. Later he was asked, ‘How’d you get to that number?’ and he said, ‘I made it up.’ Fifty-fifty is a philosophical approach. The actual number will be demonstrated by good ideas winning in the market.” Prophets don’t always have time to check facts.

Despite P&G’s commitment to innovation, it refuses to pay bonuses for patents filed by its researchers, Weedman said. A study suggests that doing so is counterproductive. “Someone at Rockwell found that October was their most innovative month of the year in terms of patent filings,” he says. “It takes about 90 days to get a patent. So people were paying their bills from the holidays with their patent bonuses.” Plus, as IBM’s Sanford pointed out, patents don’t necessarily translate into innovations.

A business adage says you can’t manage what you can’t measure. But measuring innovation is trickier than toting up sales or counting costs savings. What’s the best metric? Participants at the conference couldn’t agree, but argued that a measurement would emerge, even if it’s evolving.

“If innovation means profit, you can always measure it,” says Ashwani Rishi, president and chief executive of ITC-Infotech USA. ITC is an Indian conglomerate, with investments in cigarette making, hotels and technology, and began its life as Imperial Tobacco Co. Rishi proposed a metric that he called “intellectual horsepower.” It would take into account such factors as total number of new ideas, the number of those that are implemented and the number of implementations that yield profitable products.

Microsoft’s Sands likewise argues that profits are the acid test: “Show me the money is what it comes down to,” he says. Yet a company typically needs more than a year to develop and roll out an innovation. So profits aren’t useful as a shorter-term measure. That’s why Microsoft Research tracks the sorts of stuff that Rishi would incorporate in his metric: the number of ideas that find their way into products and the number products shipped with those features.

P&G’s Weedman, who oversees new business development, says he looks at whether his company’s divisions are allocating time and money on the new ideas that he brings to them. “Is it good enough that they’re spending scarce resources on it? Are they staffing the project? Talk’s cheap.” In the end, though, he agrees that innovation means nothing if it doesn’t yield profitable offerings. “In the market, the consumer is the boss, and every day is election day.” His boss, Lafley, put the same idea slightly differently in a recent interview: “All of the scientists — and we employ a lot of them — understand that innovation is in the consumer’s eyes. Innovation has to be good value. It’s not innovation at any price or cost.”

Reproduced without permission from Knowledge@Wharton © 2006 The Trustees of the University